430
FXUS65 KABQ 020929
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
329 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Rounds of showers and storms will be possible across northern and
central New Mexico through Wednesday. With above average moisture,
an increased risk of flash flooding will exist, especially for
recent burn scars. Drier conditions will take hold on Thursday with
only isolated storms possible across the southernmost portion of
the forecast area. Temperatures cool on Friday thanks to a
backdoor front and an increase in storm coverage is expected along
and east of the central mountains. A warming trend will take hold
into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A shortwave over northwestern NM is tapping into elevated
instability, allowing storms to re-generate near Farmington.
Guidance indicates that this instability will subside within the
next few hours, but it does not have a good handle on the current
conditions so this activity will likely continue for several more
hours. Training storms may produce some localized instances of flash
flooding.

High pressure over east TX will shift eastward today, placing the
monsoonal moisture plume directly over central NM. The trough over
the Rockies will scour out some moisture across northern NM,
limiting convective activity there this afternoon. Elsewhere, it
will be similar to yesterday with rounds of showers and storms.
There isn`t a defined shortwave feature moving over the state so the
overall coverage and intensity of storms will be slightly lower,
limiting the flash flood risk. That being said, it won`t take much
to generate flash flooding over the Sacramento Complex so a Flash
Flood Watch was issued for that area again today. Localized
instances of flash flooding are possible in the central and southern
Rio Grande Valley and the southwest mountains again today, but
storms moving at 10-20 mph will help keep 1"+  rainfall totals very
localized. Hi-res guidance is indicating that there may be a severe
storm or two in Union county during the late afternoon where shear
will be sufficient to organize updrafts coming off of the Johnson and
Bartlett Mesas. A backdoor front could help to keep shower activity
going across the northeast through the overnight hours.

The monsoonal moisture plume will continue moving eastward
Wednesday, focusing storms along and east of the central mtn chain.
A Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed once again for the
Sacramento complex for tomorrow afternoon and evening. A shortwave
will graze the state Wednesday, bringing drier air into western
areas, but its interaction with moisture across the east will likely
generate a few to several severe storms. Initially, large hail will
be the main threat, transitioning to more of a wind threat in the
evening as storms cluster together.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Drier air works to temper PWATs moving into the long term as
temperatures peak Thursday afternoon. Dry northwest flow will help
to keep storm potential localized to the southernmost portion of the
CWA, where only isolated coverage is expected. A backdoor front will
dive down the eastern plains Thursday night into Friday, surging
southward and westward towards the central mts. This is likely to
create a moderate gap wind in the middle RGV overnight. The influx
of moisture will help prime the environment for another round of
showers and thunderstorms, this time favoring the central mts and
eastward. Flow aloft will turn northwesterly again on Sunday as an
upper high begins its march towards the Desert Southwest. This will
allow for conditions to dry out somewhat to start the week, the
isolated storms staying localized to the high terrain. Upslope flow
on Monday will keep afternoon storms in the forecast across the
central mts. Temperatures across the east will cool a few degrees
while west of the central mts sees a degree or two of warming.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Scattered showers and storms are generally confined to an area
south of I-40 and east of I-25, with the exception of a few strong
storms in the northwest near KFMN. Convective activity will slowly
wind down overnight as showers and storms weaken. Tuesday`s
round of showers and storms will begin around 18Z, peaking in
coverage between 21Z and 03Z, and end around 06Z. Widespread
showers and storms will generally be confined to locations south
of I-40. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period,
although brief MVFR conditions are likely with heavier showers and
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Widespread showers and storms today and tomorrow will favor
locations along and south of I-40. Drier air enters from the
northwest tonight, decreasing precipitation chances there. A few
severe storms are possible across northeastern NM this afternoon and
again tomorrow. There is high confidence that ridging will develop
over The Great Basin late week, pushing dry air into the region from
the northwest. A few showers and isolated storms are possible in the
far southern portion of the forecast area with hot and dry
conditions prevailing elsewhere. A backdoor front is progged to
bring more moisture in from the east and potentially gusty east
winds through the gaps of the central mtn chain Friday night.
Scattered showers and storms will favor eastern NM over the weekend
into early next week while the west remains dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  90  60  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  85  49  87  46 /   5   0   5   0
Cuba............................  84  56  87  55 /  20   5  20   0
Gallup..........................  86  55  90  52 /  10  10   0   0
El Morro........................  80  57  84  55 /  40  30  10   0
Grants..........................  83  56  88  52 /  60  30  10   0
Quemado.........................  82  58  85  57 /  60  30  20   0
Magdalena.......................  82  63  84  62 /  90  40  40   0
Datil...........................  79  58  84  58 /  80  40  30   0
Reserve.........................  85  56  90  55 /  80  30  30   5
Glenwood........................  91  67  93  66 /  60  40  30  10
Chama...........................  79  48  80  47 /  20   5  20   0
Los Alamos......................  80  62  82  61 /  40  10  30   0
Pecos...........................  84  56  85  58 /  50  20  30   0
Cerro/Questa....................  80  48  80  46 /  20  10  30   0
Red River.......................  72  46  72  46 /  30  10  30   0
Angel Fire......................  77  42  77  42 /  30  10  30   0
Taos............................  84  52  85  50 /  20  10  20   0
Mora............................  81  52  81  52 /  40  20  40   0
Espanola........................  88  61  89  58 /  30   5  20   0
Santa Fe........................  83  61  84  60 /  40  10  20   5
Santa Fe Airport................  86  61  88  58 /  40  10  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  88  67  89  66 /  40  30  30   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  89  67  91  65 /  30  30  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  67  93  64 /  30  30  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  90  67  92  65 /  40  20  10   0
Belen...........................  91  65  93  62 /  50  40  20   0
Bernalillo......................  91  67  92  65 /  30  20  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  91  63  93  61 /  40  40  10   0
Corrales........................  91  65  93  64 /  30  20  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  91  62  93  62 /  40  40  10   0
Placitas........................  87  66  89  64 /  30  20  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  89  67  92  65 /  30  20  10   0
Socorro.........................  91  69  93  66 /  60  40  30   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  61  84  61 /  30  30  20   0
Tijeras.........................  85  63  87  62 /  40  30  20   0
Edgewood........................  85  61  87  58 /  40  20  20   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  57  87  54 /  40  30  20   0
Clines Corners..................  82  57  82  57 /  40  30  30   5
Mountainair.....................  85  61  86  59 /  50  40  30   5
Gran Quivira....................  86  60  86  58 /  50  40  50   5
Carrizozo.......................  90  67  88  66 /  60  40  50  10
Ruidoso.........................  84  60  82  61 /  60  40  80  20
Capulin.........................  83  58  82  56 /  60  30  50  10
Raton...........................  89  58  87  54 /  40  30  30   5
Springer........................  91  59  89  55 /  30  20  30   5
Las Vegas.......................  83  56  82  55 /  40  20  30   5
Clayton.........................  91  63  85  62 /  50  40  40  20
Roy.............................  88  61  84  58 /  40  30  40  10
Conchas.........................  96  67  91  64 /  30  40  30  10
Santa Rosa......................  91  66  88  63 /  40  40  30   5
Tucumcari.......................  97  67  92  66 /  20  50  30  10
Clovis..........................  97  70  93  69 /  20  50  30  20
Portales........................  98  71  94  70 /  20  40  30  20
Fort Sumner.....................  95  70  92  68 /  30  40  30  10
Roswell......................... 101  75  99  74 /  30  40  30  20
Picacho.........................  91  68  89  67 /  50  40  70  20
Elk.............................  89  64  87  64 /  60  40  70  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...16