Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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657 FXUS65 KABQ 300533 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1133 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Monsoon moisture combined with a backdoor cold front will allow showers and storms to persist well into tonight, with north central and northeast areas being the most favored. Drier air moves into eastern areas Sunday shifting the moisture plume and storm coverage to western and parts of central areas Sunday. Diurnal showers and storms will favor western and central areas Monday expanding east Tuesday and Wednesday. Drier northwest flow moves in on the Fourth of July holiday pushing higher moisture and storm coverage to southern areas. A backdoor front moves in Thursday night into Friday morning increasing storm coverage across eastern NM Friday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The backdoor cold front has pushed southward to just pass Fort Sumner and Clovis. Moist upslope flow behind the front should set the stage for an active late afternoon, evening and overnight period. Storms should initiate on the Sangre de Cristo Mountains before tracking eastward. Strong veering with height (though mid level flow is weak) combined with modest instability across northeast NM will allow for at least a few severe storms. Large hail may occur initially, but heavy rain and damaging outflow winds should be the higher threat going into the evening and overnight. HREF probabilities show at least a 20-30% chance of greater than 2" of rain within one hour`s time at various times this evening across portions of NE NM. PWATs are currently around 120-160% of normal so heavy rainfall will be easy to come by especially with persistent upslope flow. Of greatest concern, is the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar which is already seeing some light rain, but should get heavier with increasing instability this afternoon. In fact, the HPCC burn scar should get multiple rounds of precipitation going through the overnight periods. Some of the most persistent rainfall may occur between 10pm and 3am, not only on the burn scar, but also across much of north central and northeast NM. Elsewhere, showers and a few thunderstorms have been ongoing across western NM in response to a disturbance moving northward across eastern AZ. These should, too, increase in intensity and coverage through the remainder of the afternoon, but should diminish around sunset. Storms around the burn scars across the Sacramento Mountains will likely continue to skirt the western sides of South Fork, but it`s possible that additional storms will form over the burn scars later this afternoon before diminishing this evening. A Flash Flood Warning has already been issued for these burn scars. There was initial concern that the storms east of the central mountain chain would send a strong outflow boundary through the gaps of the central mountain chain this evening. While this may still happen, and probably will for a short time, latest model guidance shows that outflows from storms to the north and west of ABQ will interfere with the gap wind, thus, the gap wind may not be as strong as originally thought. Will forego a Wind Advisory for now, but bears watching. Dry air moving into southeast NM around the base of the upper high will continue to press northwest overnight and Sunday. Therefore, the moisture plume will be focused further west on Sunday, with precipitation favoring far northern and western NM during the afternoon and evening. That`s not to say that burn scars couldn`t see some precipitation, but confidence is too low at this time to issue a Flood Watch for Sunday afternoon and evening. Will let later shifts take another look at this. Rather, heavy rain will favor areas across far northwest NM and a Flood Watch may be needed for areas around Farmington. Storms may begin to shift a bit eastward Sunday night, impacting a bit more of western NM, but the moisture plume will shift further eastward on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A strong and sprawling 598 dm upper high will be centered over the southern Great Plains along with troughing over the Great Basin as we kick off the month of July. This will position the monsoon moisture plume of PWATS as high as 1.3 inches over western and central NM and part of northeast NM. Drier midlevel air will be across the rest of eastern NM due to this part of the state being on the western flank of the upper high. Thus, the shower and storm coverage Monday afternoon and evening will favor central and western NM with storms starting over the northern and western high terrain spreading northeast to lower elevations come the evening through outflow boundaries. Burn scars west of the central mountain chain will have a better chance of burn scar flash flooding with lower chances for HPCC and the Ruidoso burn scars due to them being east of the higher midlevel moisture. The monsoon plume shifts east a little and becomes oriented from western NM to northeast and east central NM Tuesday. This is due to upper level troughing moving over the central Rockies and the upper high centroid shifting to the lower Mississippi Valley. Thus, more of eastern NM will see showers and storms during the late afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. Additionally, the risk of flash flooding on the HPCC and Ruidoso burn scars will be slightly higher on Tuesday compared to Monday. Another round of diurnal showers and storms first over the higher terrain before spreading down to lower elevations later in the day is expected Wednesday as the monsoon moisture plume remains over the region and interacts with an upper level trough diving southeast into the northern Rockies. The one area that might not see showers and storms on Wednesday will be the Four Corners area and far north central areas due to drier northwest flow dropping PWATS to half an inch. This drier northwest flow overtakes more areas of the state for the 4th of July as the upper level trough moves east into the northern Great Plains and a strong upper level high develops over California. PWATS drop to as low as 0.25 inches over the Four Corners and around 0.5 to 0.75 inches for most. The exception will be southern areas as the higher monsoon moisture of PWATS greater than an inch lingers. Thus a risk of burn scar flash flooding will still exist for Ruidoso area. The break in showers and storms for eastern NM does not last long, unfortunately, due to the exiting upper level trough over the upper Midwest sending a backdoor cold front into eastern NM Thursday night into Friday morning. The higher moisture and upslope flow behind this backdoor front combined with an upper level trough diving southeast along the eastern flank of the upper high over California will set the stage for more showers and storms along and east of the central mountain chain Friday afternoon and evening into Friday night. Western and central NM look to remain on the drier end thanks to the dry northwest flow from the California upper high. However, outflow boundaries from the storms in eastern NM will surge through the gaps of the central mountain chain Friday evening and night and bring a gusty east canyon wind to the ABQ and Santa Fe Metros. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Numerous thunderstorms will continue over north central and northeast NM overnight. Low cigs/vsby will accompany heavy rainfall. Elsewhere, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight as an easterly wave rounds elongated high pressure centered over the Southern Plains. On Sunday, afternoon and evening showers and storms will be most prevalent over far northern and far western NM during the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible elsewhere Sunday afternoon. Heavy rainfall and brief reductions to visibility are likely from any storm. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A prolonged period of active, wet weather is on tap for the next week, though favored areas for precipitation will change daily. After sunset tonight, storms with heavy rainfall will favor north central and northeast NM thru sunrise. On Sunday, the moisture plume will shift westward and storms will favor far western and northern areas. The moisture plume shifts back eastward on Monday then will focus from west to east across central NM on Tuesday. Widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday before a downtick in storm coverage is expected Thursday, however, a backdoor cold front across eastern NM on Friday will be another focus for thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is possible daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 67 91 66 86 / 30 80 60 50 Dulce........................... 55 84 54 83 / 50 80 60 60 Cuba............................ 60 86 59 81 / 60 60 60 80 Gallup.......................... 59 89 59 83 / 40 70 60 60 El Morro........................ 59 84 58 80 / 50 60 70 80 Grants.......................... 59 88 60 83 / 50 60 60 80 Quemado......................... 60 87 59 81 / 30 50 70 80 Magdalena....................... 65 88 65 84 / 50 20 50 70 Datil........................... 60 85 60 80 / 50 30 60 80 Reserve......................... 59 91 58 87 / 40 40 80 70 Glenwood........................ 68 94 67 92 / 50 40 80 70 Chama........................... 52 76 51 76 / 60 80 70 70 Los Alamos...................... 61 82 63 81 / 70 60 40 70 Pecos........................... 59 83 59 82 / 70 40 30 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 79 51 78 / 80 70 40 60 Red River....................... 49 71 49 71 / 80 80 30 60 Angel Fire...................... 51 74 48 77 / 80 70 20 50 Taos............................ 57 83 58 84 / 80 60 30 50 Mora............................ 54 79 54 82 / 80 60 20 50 Espanola........................ 63 90 64 89 / 70 50 30 50 Santa Fe........................ 63 84 62 83 / 70 40 30 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 88 63 86 / 70 40 30 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 92 69 89 / 60 20 40 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 93 70 91 / 60 20 30 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 69 95 69 93 / 60 10 30 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 94 69 91 / 60 20 40 60 Belen........................... 68 96 68 93 / 60 10 30 50 Bernalillo...................... 68 94 69 92 / 60 20 30 50 Bosque Farms.................... 67 95 66 92 / 60 10 30 50 Corrales........................ 68 95 68 92 / 60 20 30 60 Los Lunas....................... 67 96 66 92 / 60 10 30 50 Placitas........................ 67 90 67 88 / 60 20 30 50 Rio Rancho...................... 69 94 69 91 / 60 20 30 60 Socorro......................... 71 97 71 95 / 50 10 30 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 85 63 83 / 60 20 30 60 Tijeras......................... 64 88 64 86 / 60 20 30 60 Edgewood........................ 63 87 62 86 / 60 20 30 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 62 88 58 86 / 60 20 30 50 Clines Corners.................. 60 82 58 83 / 60 20 20 40 Mountainair..................... 62 88 62 86 / 60 20 30 50 Gran Quivira.................... 61 88 61 87 / 60 20 30 50 Carrizozo....................... 66 90 67 90 / 40 20 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 59 83 59 81 / 30 30 20 40 Capulin......................... 59 81 61 86 / 80 40 5 30 Raton........................... 60 85 59 88 / 80 50 5 30 Springer........................ 61 87 61 91 / 80 40 5 30 Las Vegas....................... 58 82 59 83 / 80 30 20 40 Clayton......................... 62 86 67 93 / 80 30 0 5 Roy............................. 62 84 64 88 / 80 30 5 20 Conchas......................... 68 93 70 96 / 70 10 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 67 89 68 91 / 60 10 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 67 94 69 97 / 60 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 69 95 69 96 / 30 5 0 0 Portales........................ 70 96 69 96 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 71 94 71 95 / 40 0 5 5 Roswell......................... 74 99 72 100 / 20 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 67 91 66 92 / 20 10 10 30 Elk............................. 62 88 62 90 / 20 20 20 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ214-215-221>223-226>232. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...33