Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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218 FXUS65 KABQ 302353 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 553 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1253 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The 2024 North American Monsoon continues in full swing across central and western NM through tonight, with strong storms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and causing flash flooding. Good chances for storms will continue each afternoon and evening through Wednesday, with a downtick forecast on Independence Day. A backdoor front will recharge moisture across eastern and central NM on Friday, bringing good chances for storms back to the eastern half of the region while western NM remains mostly dry through the weekend. A slow warming trend is forecast through mid week, with the hottest temperatures forecast on Independence Day. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1253 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Anomalously high atmospheric moisture continues across the area, with the 12Z KABQ upper air sounding showing a PWAT of 1.35", which ranks in the top 3 all time for June. The dewpoint temperature was still 60 at KABQ at 1PM, which is exceedingly rare. The atmosphere was worked-over yesterday evening and overnight, so a slower start this afternoon, but we`re still anticipating an active late afternoon and evening with storms favoring the western half of the area. The latest CAMs show a significant expansion in coverage and intensity from 2-5PM out west as well as around the burn scars near Ruidoso. The threat for flooding on the HPCC burn scar is relatively lower today as the upper high to the east has extended a ridge axis westward over north central portions of the state. Latest modeling shows convection persisting overnight, especially near the CO border in closer proximity to the westerlies. The upper level ridge will back off a bit Monday and allow the westerlies associated with an upper level trough moving from the Great Basin toward the central Rockies to penetrate further south into northern NM. This will increase west to east storm motion and bring more shear for a slight uptick in hail and gusty winds Monday afternoon/evening. The threat for burn scar flooding will tick up for the HPCC on Monday and remain constant for the scars near Ruidoso, where very little rainfall will cause dangerous flooding. Off-scar flash flooding can not be ruled out Monday either. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1253 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The westerlies will penetrate further south into central NM Tuesday, while the upper level ridge holds on across the southern half. Meaning, more storm motion and better structure for storms across the northern half of the state. Similar setup and another active day Wednesday, although the upper level ridge across the southern half will lose it`s grip a tad and allow for increased coverage. The burn scar flood threat will remain elevated both Tuesday and Wednesday. All models show a downtrend in PWATs Wednesday night through Independence Day as an upper level trough/low moving across the central/northern Rockies steers drier air on northwest flow aloft over most of the state. Independence Day will be the least convectively active day and the hottest of the forecast period, with high temperatures above normal most areas. The ejecting trough will push a backdoor front down the eastern plains Thursday night into Friday and recharge moisture to the central mountain chain, setting the stage for an active northwest flow pattern through the weekend with the upper high located over CA. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Some drier and more stable air has entered eastern New Mexico, preventing showers and thunderstorms from developing. However, farther west isolated to scattered activity is getting underway with an increase in coverage expected over western and central New Mexico through the late evening and perhaps even into the early morning hours Monday. These western and central areas of the state will see strong storms capable of producing hefty downpours with brief reductions to visibility and ceilings. A strong downburst cannot be ruled out either with abrupt gusts of 40 to 50 kt possible. Storms will decrease and diminish before dawn Monday with a new crop of storms expected to redevelop over mainly the northwestern half of New Mexico Monday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1253 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the next seven days as an active North American Monsoon continues, bringing daily rounds of wetting storms and good to excellent humidity recovery. An elevated threat for burn scar flooding will exist through Wednesday, then trend down Independence Day before a backdoor front recharges moisture on Friday and brings a renewed threat for burn scar flooding going into the weekend. Increasing northwest flow aloft will dry-out western portions of the area from Independence Day onward through the weekend, brining back hot, dry and unstable conditons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 66 83 61 89 / 70 60 20 20 Dulce........................... 56 78 51 84 / 70 70 30 30 Cuba............................ 59 78 56 82 / 50 70 40 40 Gallup.......................... 59 83 56 86 / 70 60 30 30 El Morro........................ 57 79 57 82 / 70 70 50 50 Grants.......................... 60 82 57 84 / 70 70 50 60 Quemado......................... 59 81 59 82 / 70 70 50 70 Magdalena....................... 62 84 64 83 / 70 70 50 70 Datil........................... 58 80 59 80 / 70 60 40 70 Reserve......................... 56 87 57 87 / 70 60 30 60 Glenwood........................ 65 91 67 93 / 70 50 30 60 Chama........................... 53 73 50 78 / 60 70 40 30 Los Alamos...................... 60 79 61 81 / 50 70 60 50 Pecos........................... 57 81 57 82 / 40 60 70 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 77 49 80 / 30 70 40 30 Red River....................... 49 69 48 72 / 20 70 40 40 Angel Fire...................... 50 74 48 74 / 20 60 30 30 Taos............................ 57 81 55 82 / 30 60 30 30 Mora............................ 53 80 54 81 / 20 60 40 40 Espanola........................ 63 86 61 87 / 40 60 50 30 Santa Fe........................ 61 81 61 82 / 50 60 60 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 84 61 86 / 50 50 60 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 86 67 87 / 50 60 70 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 88 66 88 / 50 60 70 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 90 65 90 / 50 50 60 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 88 66 88 / 50 60 60 50 Belen........................... 66 91 64 90 / 40 50 50 50 Bernalillo...................... 66 88 66 89 / 50 50 60 40 Bosque Farms.................... 64 90 62 90 / 40 50 60 40 Corrales........................ 65 89 64 89 / 50 50 60 50 Los Lunas....................... 64 90 62 90 / 40 50 60 40 Placitas........................ 64 86 65 86 / 50 50 60 40 Rio Rancho...................... 66 87 66 88 / 50 60 60 50 Socorro......................... 68 93 69 92 / 40 50 40 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 81 61 82 / 50 70 70 40 Tijeras......................... 62 84 62 84 / 50 70 70 40 Edgewood........................ 59 85 60 85 / 40 60 70 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 86 57 86 / 40 60 60 40 Clines Corners.................. 56 82 57 83 / 30 40 60 40 Mountainair..................... 59 85 60 85 / 50 50 60 50 Gran Quivira.................... 59 86 59 86 / 50 50 40 50 Carrizozo....................... 66 89 68 90 / 50 30 20 50 Ruidoso......................... 58 81 60 82 / 40 40 20 50 Capulin......................... 60 84 59 85 / 5 50 30 40 Raton........................... 59 88 58 89 / 10 50 30 30 Springer........................ 60 89 60 91 / 10 40 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 58 81 58 83 / 20 40 50 40 Clayton......................... 64 93 67 93 / 5 20 20 30 Roy............................. 63 87 63 89 / 10 40 30 30 Conchas......................... 68 95 69 95 / 10 20 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 65 91 66 93 / 10 30 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 68 98 69 99 / 5 10 10 20 Clovis.......................... 68 96 70 98 / 0 10 10 10 Portales........................ 68 97 70 99 / 0 10 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 70 96 71 97 / 5 20 10 20 Roswell......................... 74 100 75 104 / 5 10 10 20 Picacho......................... 66 92 66 94 / 10 30 20 40 Elk............................. 62 89 63 91 / 30 20 10 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Monday for NMZ201>203-205-206-210-211- 213>215-226-227. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...52