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096
FXUS61 KOKX 260624
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
224 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds off the Eastern Seaboard overnight. A
warm front moves through toward morning, and late tonight, and
moves northeast and away from the region early this morning.
Wednesday. A cold front then approaches from the west, moving
across late Wednesday night into early Thursday. High pressure
gradually builds in thereafter through Thursday night, becoming
centered over the area Friday morning and moving offshore Friday
evening. A warm front lifts north of the area Friday night into
Saturday, followed by a cold frontal passage sometime on
Sunday. High pressure then likely builds in for early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A weak shortwave was tracking through the eastern portions of
the region, and has produce a few showers across eastern Long
Island and over the ocean. Updated the probabilities and weather
for this feature. Also, temperatures across northeastern New
Jersey and metro New York City were still in the upper 70s, and
updated to raise overnight lows, and hourly temperatures.

Expect higher level clouds with a mid and upper deck with some
transparency. Skies should average out to be partly cloudy for a
good portion of the overnight.

For tonight a nearly steady zonal flow remains. A warm front is
forecast to move northeast of the region early this morning.

It will start to feel more humid as well as the dewpoints are
forecast to rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
On Wednesday, more height falls are forecast at 500mb. A mid
level trough approaches from the west. Even stronger height
falls are forecast for Wednesday night as the trough eventually
moves into the area late Wednesday night. This trough will exit
the area early Thursday and shift east of the area Thursday
afternoon.

At the surface, the warm front will be moving northeast away
from the region early Wednesday. The area will be in the warm
sector during the day Wednesday. There are model indications of
a pre-frontal trough developing during the day but not much
convective development along it. This is probably due to mixing
down of drier air. Dewpoint depressions of near 25 degrees are
forecast, limiting the moisture available for convective
initiation. A cold front will be approaching from the west.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms begin north and west of
NYC in the first half of the afternoon and then in the second
half of the afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms are
forecast farther east into NE NJ, NYC, Western Long Island, SW
Connecticut. Late afternoon, expecting showers and thunderstorms
to become likely north and west of NYC.

The cold front eventually moves into the region Wednesday night.
Highest vertical forcing with more positive vorticity with the
shortwave moves in Wednesday night. Showers become likely ahead
of it for Wednesday evening across the entire region. The chance
for thunderstorms will remain as well.

A note about thunderstorms. There could be strong to severe
thunderstorms within the region. SPC has highlighted much of the
western half of the region with a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms and a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms to
the east for the remainder of the region. Models show limited
CAPE (near or less than 1000 J/kg) but 40-50 kt of bulk shear
0-6 km AGL. The CAPE becomes elevated Wednesday night, so do
expect some maintenance of convection across the coastal
sections of the region. Also see hydro section for flooding
potential which will have a marginal risk especially for any
strong or severe thunderstorms. PWATS are forecast to reach near
2 inches, highest along the coast Wednesday night. The main
threats with any severe thunderstorms would be damaging winds and
large hail.

For Thursday, the cold front may still be lingering nearby in
the morning and will remain across eastern parts of the region.
The front moves fully offshore by early afternoon.

Chances for showers remain late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Dry conditions expected to return for the whole
forecast region Thursday afternoon.

Regarding temperatures, SW winds tonight into Wednesday with
warm air advection. Warmer night is expected tonight compared to
previous night with more humid conditions. Highs forecast
Wednesday will be relatively similar to those of the previous
day with some more humidity but will be a few degrees cooler
along the coast. Only have max heat indices getting to lower
90s within NYC and part of NE NJ into the mid 90s. Overall, the
entire forecast region is expected to stay below heat advisory
criteria.

Highs forecast more in the 80s for Thursday with drier
conditions as dewpoints drop into upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure starts to build in Thursday night as heights rise
aloft in a zonal flow. The airmass that will build in will bring
drier and a bit cooler conditions to the area. Friday looks to be
the pick of the long term. High pressure moves overhead early in the
day and then offshore by the evening. This will lead to sunny and
dry conditions, with high temperatures potentially a few degrees
below normal for late June. Dewpoints in the low 50s will give a
comfortable feel to the air.

By Friday evening, the synoptic surface flow will become southerly
(outside of any areas that will already be in a southerly flow from
seabreezes) in response to the high moving offshore. A warm front
looks to move through sometime later Friday night into Saturday
morning. This will start to bring in warm and moist air ahead of the
next cold frontal passage.

Between a pre-frontal trough and a slower moving cold front, chances
for showers and thunderstorms last from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday night. At this time there are no hydrologic issues expected,
but it is worth nothing that pwats look to be between 2.25 and 2.5
inches. In this environment, any shower or thunderstorm will likely
be able to produce heavy downpours.

The front pushes through sometime on Sunday and then high pressure
looks to build in for the beginning of next week leading to dry
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A warm front lifts north of the area overnight as a cold front
approaches Wed night which moves through late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning.

VFR prevails. Possible MVFR conditions in association with any
thunderstorms towards Wed eve. PROB30 groups for TSRA towards
02-05Z for the western and city terminals with arrival of pre-
frontal trough. There may be some isolated showers and
thunderstorms prior to this time frame, but coverage was not
high enough to include in TAFs. Best chance for these showers
and  is for city terminals and points north and west for Wed
afternoon. Any TSRA that develops may contain strong gusty winds
or hail.

SW winds around 10 kt for the metro terminals tonight. Winds
diminish a little more for the outlying terminals tonight and
will be under 10 kt, before increasing again during the day Wed.
SW winds increase during the day Wednesday at 10 to around 15
kt, with gusts in the afternoon of 15 to around 20 kt for most
terminals. Occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible. Sea breeze
development expected for most coastal terminals Wed afternoon,
shifting winds more to the S. A shift to the W is then expected
late in the TAF period as the cold front moves through, but this
off +/- a couple of hours than forecast due to uncertainty in
the actual cold frontal passage.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected overnight.

Amendments expected with arrival time of t-storms late Wed /
Wed eve remains uncertain.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in showers and
isolated thunderstorms that may move through towards daybreak
Thursday. SW winds shifting to the W, then NW with passage of
the cold front.

Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Sunday...MVFR possible in a chance of shra and tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
A small craft advisory remains in effect for the ocean zones
through Wednesday night. Also the south shore bays will have the
small craft as well until 10PM Wednesday night.

Already starting to have Ambrose jet form along western ocean
zone and more gusty SW flow is expected to continue through
tonight and into Wednesday, as well as Wednesday evening
including the South Shore Bays. There may be some 25 kt gusts
farther north for other non-ocean zones as well for tonight
through Wednesday evening but those will probably just be
occasional.

Late Wednesday night, SCA conditions will just remain on the
ocean, with the non-ocean waters expected to have below SCA
conditions.

SCA conditions could linger into Thursday on the ocean, mainly
due to seas, but otherwise would expect conditions to become
primarily below SCA.

Winds and waves generally remain below SCA criteria from
Thursday night through early next week. However, there is the
potential for SCA winds Saturday afternoon through early Sunday
as the pressure gradient increases across the waters ahead of a
cold frontal passage. Wind gusts could reach 25 kt on all waters
and waves could reach 5 ft on the ocean waters. Conditions then
likely lower for the start of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Around 0.5 to 1 inch of rain forecast Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning. Locally higher amounts will be possible.
Marginal risk of flooding, especially Wednesday night, and for
poor drainage and low lying areas within any potentially strong to
severe thunderstorms. Localized flash flooding cannot be ruled
out.

At this time, there are no hydrologic concerns Thursday night
through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk at all local Atlantic facing
beaches today through Wednesday evening and likely lowering to
moderate for Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JM/MET
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/JT
HYDROLOGY...JM/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...