Isolated Severe Thunderstorms and Flooding Potential in the Central U.S.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern and central Plains today through Saturday. Large hail and severe wind gusts are the main threats. Heavy rainfall is forecast from the western Gulf Coast into the Midwest from this weekend into early next week. New and renewed river rises are possible across portions of eastern Texas.
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Hazardous Weather Conditions

Last Update: 1033 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

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Key West, FL Local Forecast Office

7NM E Vaca Cut FL

Marine Zone Forecast


Synopsis: High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to retreat east today as a weak trough eases southward across Florida. Expect period of peaks and lulls today through Friday. A short lived north to northeast blow is possible after midnight tonight. Thereafter, high pressure building from the eastern United States into the western Atlantic will bring freshening easterly breezes starting Friday night. The strongest breezes over the next five days will be Saturday night through Sunday night.

The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of May 11...

25 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key. 26 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys. 26 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West. 28 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key. 13 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon. 7 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada. 7 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo. 6 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.

Gulf Stream Information Courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.

This Afternoon
Variable winds near 5 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Nearshore waters smooth. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.
Tonight
Northwest winds near 10 knots, becoming northeast and increasing to near 15 knots. Seas building to 1 to 3 feet. nearshore waters a light chop, becoming a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher near isolated showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated showers.
Friday
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Friday Night
Northeast winds increasing to near 15 knots. Seas building to 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters becoming a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Saturday
Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Nearshore waters choppy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
Northeast to east winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Nearshore waters rough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Sunday And Sunday Night
Northeast to east winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Nearshore waters rough. Isolated showers.
Monday And Monday Night
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Nearshore waters choppy. Scattered showers.
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ABOUT THIS FORECAST

Last Update: 1033 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021
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