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620
FXUS61 KOKX 100532
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
132 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A humid airmass will remain in place through Thursday, allowing for
the potential development of showers and thunderstorms. There is
then a chance of daily showers and thunderstorms expected
through Monday. A weak frontal system may pass to the north
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Monitoring progress of impressive Mesoscale Convective Complex
just south of Long Island. The main line of storms may graze or
move over eastern Long Island and potentially southeast
Connecticut in the next few hours. Gusty winds, lightning, and
heavy rain are possible with this activity. Lightning may also
occur away from the heaviest rain as impressive symmetrical cold
cloud tops down to -62C are overhead.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Additional chances for shwrs and tstms on Thu as the upr trof and
embedded shrtwv energy lingers in the area. Stuck with the NBM
timing here, but if activity is robust early in the day as the NAM
suggests, there could be limited action in the aftn where the
airmass is worked over. However, if a mrng round doesn`t develop,
more extensive activity seems more likely in the aftn hours. A bit
cloudy with onshore flow, so high temps 70s and 80s with max
apparent temps mainly in the 80s.

As the upr trof axis passes E of the CWA Thu ngt, decreasing
chances for rain. With lgt llvl flow, moisture will remain in
place resulting in a humid ngt.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages
- Showers and thunderstorms are a daily concern through
Monday, thanks to a lingering boundary and plenty of moisture from
the onshore flow. Western forecast areas are at the greatest risk,
as daytime heating will boost instability.

- The greatest uncertainty in the forecast period, particularly for
temperatures and PoPs, remains Sunday through Monday. This is
attributed to the varied handling of a weak frontal system by the
ensembles.

- Next week, temperatures are expected to warm up, reaching the mid
80s to around 90 degrees. Lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s. ML
guidance is hinting at a low (10-30%) threat for severe weather that
will need to be monitored, along with a frontal system late in the
week.

No major changes made to the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A stationary frontal boundary remains near the terminals through
tonight.

Mainly VFR to start with a complex of showers and thunderstorms
mainly impacting Long Island and southeast CT terminals through
09z. Additional showers are possible elsewhere through much of
the morning hours. IFR or even LIFR is possible at KISP and
KGON. MVFR is otherwise expected around day break, but
confidence in it prevailing is low so have gone with tempos at
most sites except east of the NYC metros.

VFR is anticipated this afternoon with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Have left the PROB30 in place for NYC metro and
Lower Hudson Valley terminals this afternoon and early evening.
Coverage however may end up more isolated. Conditions should
lower tonight with MVFR most sites and IFR or LIFR possible east
of the NYC metro terminals.

Mainly light winds this morning. A light W or SW flow may
develop at NYC terminals after day break but winds should
gradually become S-SE late morning into the afternoon remaining
under 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TSRA expected to stay east early this morning.

MVFR may prevail this morning and could linger a few hours
longer than in TAF this afternoon.

Some variability in wind direction is possible throughout the
TAF period as wind speeds will overall be light.

Amendments likely to refine the timing of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: MVFR or lower possible.

Friday - Sunday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and early evening near and northwest of the
NYC terminals with MVFR possible.

Monday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
Outside of tstms, winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls
thru Thu. A weak pressure gradient into the upcoming weekend
will keep winds and seas below SCA levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a risk for mainly minor urban and poor drainage flooding
thru Thu with rounds of shwrs and tstms expected. Although not
currently modeled, if the heaviest bands of rain set up over the
more flood prone areas of NJ and the urban corridor, there will be a
more substantial flash flood risk there.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate rip current risk is forecast today and Friday due to
to incoming 3-4 ft/7-8s swell.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/99
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/99
HYDROLOGY...JMC/99
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...